West

Interpolation methods and the Hagan-West paper

Interpolation is a very useful technique for extracting data when the available information does not come in a continuous form.

From a non-technical point of view, any inference or decision process (sometimes subconsciously) is based on a kind of interpolation or best fitting or regression of the available informations. We as people are normally quite good at generalising (often too fast) from the little amount of information that we have about other people, situations, or even numerical data. This is possible because our brain can recognise patterns and see trends in any kind of data. However, technically speaking, interpolation is more that just finding a trend.

Technically, we are often given a discrete set of data corresponding to a certain function which is known at specific points, or nodes (for example, we have made an experiment for specific input values and measured the outputs  corresponding to that input), and is otherwise unknown.  In principle this is a multi-dimensional problem, and the interpolating hyper-surface will give an idea of the missing information. In fact, even if it is true that such a hyper-surface can always be numerically constructed,  however the uniqueness issue remains. Given the same input data, many different constructions can be engineered, all satisfying to various -more or less realistic- criteria, and all passing through the same input points. Continue reading